North Malé Atoll, Maldives

The Republic of the Maldives is a small island nation in the north-central Indian Ocean and the lowest lying country in the world. It is made up of around 1,200 small coral islands and sandbanks grouped into atolls (Luthi, E., 2021). About 200 of these islands are inhabited (Luthi, E., 2021). The Maldives are made up almost entirely of the Maldivian ethnic group which are often split into three subdivisions based on location. The HEV analysis in this website will specifically focus on the main group of Maldivians on the North Malé Atoll (Savage, A., et al., 2019). The North Malé Atoll is where the capital of the Maldives, Malé, is located. The Maldives have taken many steps to respond to the climate change emergency. They are a country that only contributes to 0.003% of greenhouse gas emissions, however, their personal national action alone will not have a major effect on climate change as a whole (Luthi, E., 2021).

Analysis in long-term tide gauge data at Hulhule’ island harbor illustrates a local mean sea level rise of around 4.46 mm per year with an accelerating trend (Rasheed, S., et al., 2021).

Tsunamis may be the most destructive hazard for Maldives, with predicted maximum wave heights between 3.2 to 4.5 meters over mean sea level before swell waves and storm surges hit (Van Bronkhorst, B., 2021).

The Maldives regularly experience high temperatures with a mean annual temperature of around 27.6°C/81.68°F (Van Bronkhorst, B., 2021).  The projected change in temperature rise leads to potentially extremely uncomfortable and dangerous conditions. The median change for daily temperature is 3.24°C/37.832°F (Van Bronkhorst, B., 2021).

There has also been an increase in deadly communicable diseases in the Maldives due to climate change such as  dengue, scrub typhus, toxoplasmosis, and acute respiratory infections (Nijamdeen, A., et al., 2018). Epidemics occur when the minimum and maximum temperatures are between 25-26 °C and 30-31 °C (Nijamdeen, A., et al., 2018).

The cost of dengue illness in the Maldives in 2015 was $2,495,747 plus an additional $1,338,141 for dengue surveillance (Bangert, M., et al., 2018). The risk of dengue lowers the country’s gross annual income by reducing the number of international tourist arrivals by 11.7%  (Bangert, M., et al., 2018). Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and territories' temperature and rainfall increases keeps dengue a prominent threat (Bangert, M., et al., 2018).

The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami killed 102 people and displaced nearly 30,000 more. 12,000 of that 30,000 were homeless (Van Bronkhorst, B., 2021). The population density of the community combined with poor infrastructure led to greater exposure and catastrophic events. 

Other aspects that affect exposure are the degree of already damaged ecosystems as well as the distance to the shoreline and building elevation and infrastructure (Van Bronkhorst, B., 2021). Some critical infrastructure includes roads, harbors, power and desalination plants, administrative buildings, schools, airports, bridges and roads all close to the coast (Ginnetti, J., et al., 2015, Luthi, E., 2021). 

The Maldives has five airports and 128 harbors all along the coastline. The two international airports critical for tourism are both within 50 meters of the coastline (Moosa, L., et al., 2006).

With an average elevation of 1.5 meters and a peak elevation of 2.4 meters (Ginnetti, J., et al., 2015) the Maldives are very vulnerable to tsunamis, storm surges, sea level rise and other flooding. They have an annual displacement rate of 3,700 with a 3.3% increase per year (Ginnetti, J., et al., 2015). The Maldives’ minister of the environment, Aminath Shauna, said that over half the national budget is spent on climate change (Manzo, D., et al., 2021).

After the Tsunami, the lack of a proper sewage system and flooding led to the almost complete contamination of the groundwater system (Heinen, J. T., 2005, Orłowska , J., 2018). Despite this contamination, the water is still used by many for washing and bathing due to a lack of other options. Additionally, there are no drainage systems on the islands so no water is being replenished (Orłowska , J., 2018). With predictions of future longer dry seasons, this could prove to be very problematic.

Poverty is one of the other challenges heightening the Maldives vulnerability to climate change. They face challenges such as a small domestic market, fragile resource base, difficulties with inter-island transport and communication, high cost infrastructure and heavy external dependence (Moosa, L., et al., 2006, World Bank, 2018).

Tourism and in turn the local economy are extremely vulnerable to climate change. Tourism is shown to align with the general climate trend with peak season being during the dry season and the off season being the rainy season (Nijamdeen, A., et al., 2018, Van Bronkhorst, B., 2021). About 45% of the tourist resorts in the Maldives have reported varying degrees of beach erosion and other climate change indicators affecting the “ perfect paradise” tourism product (Van Bronkhorst, B., 2021).

The North Malé atoll was also found to be the worst affected area in the country affected by COVID-19 due to the same population density issues as well as being the center of power, social and economic activities (United Nations, 2020). Future diseases that will be amplified due to climate change will likely have similar, if not worse, effects than dengue fever and COVID-19 on the community (Nijamdeen, A., et al., 2018, United Nations, 2020). 

The Maldives are also vulnerable to food insecurity due to their limited land area, soil quality and strong dependency on marine resources which are all climate sensitive. Almost 90% of their food is imported and especially in this more urban community there is an emphasis on nutrient poor, cheap foods.

Sea level rise countermeasure- The most notable example is the government constructed artificial island Hulhumalé, raised 1.8–2.0 meters above sea level adjacent to Malé. The island is 400 ha and is set to house 100,000 people, many of whom are climate refugees, by 2030 (Gussmann, et al., 2020). 

-The government also revealed Dhuvaafaru Island in 2009. The once uninhabited island was raised and a villago for 4,000 climate survivors was built. The survivors' island, Kandholhudhoo, was destroyed by a tsunami. The government is split between adapting islands to climate change or building new ones with safer designs (Gussmann, et al., 2020). However, there is no guarantee that these artificial islands will be significantly less vulnerable to climate change.

-Water scarcity- Rainwater, desalinated water and expensive bottled water are the only water options. The National Disasters Management Center in Malé annually sends emergency shipments of water to about half of the inhabited islands during the dry season. This is an expensive solution and can take two weeks to arrive (UNDP). 

-A UNICEF-sponsored climate change awareness program has been integrated into the national curriculum to educate the younger population of the country about the impacts of climate change (Arnall, Kothari, 2015).