An Uncertain Future: Melting Himalayan Glaciers

Introduction

Climate change is significantly disturbing the Himalayan ecosystem, and environmental factors such as an increase in temperature in high mountains, reduced snowfall, and extreme weather events are at the forefront of the issue. High mountain villages and the accessibility and mobility of people unique to the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region must be considered when examining the vulnerability of Nepal to climate change (Dhimal et al., 2021). Glaciers are melting at alarming rates and accelerating from the development of glacial lakes, along with glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) being an immediate, increasing threat. It is certain that river flow rate will increase and then decrease as glaciers melt, jeopardizing water, food and energy security of Nepal and other countries that depend on glacial melt fed rivers. Diseases will expand into these areas as extreme weather events and temperatures increase. Ultimately, the general health and function of communities and ecosystems in Nepal will be significantly affected by the melting of glaciers in the Himalaya. 

The HKH hosts approximately 95,000 glaciers and holds the largest ice volume outside of the polar regions, and the topography and remoteness of the region makes expeditions and research difficult (Nie et al., 2021). The trending warming and melting rates in the region being faster than the rest of the world’s mountain glaciers shows how heightened concern is necessary (Nie et al., 2021). Small and low elevation glaciers have been found to be shrinking the fastest, and continuous mass loss has occurred and been documented over the last five decades (Azam et al., 2018). Most of the glaciers in the region exist between 5,000 and 7,000 meters, and these are the most at risk because warming temperatures could change precipitation patters from snow to rain (Prakash, 2020). A lot of snow exists year-round at these elevations, and rain would both decrease accumulation of snow and the albedo of the area. In a 1.5º C warming scenario, it is projected that these low elevation small glaciers are likely to lose approximately 50% of their mass by 2100, and the runoff is projected to decrease by 10% by the end of the 21^st Century (ICPP, 2022).

Food Security

The decline of springs from changes in the hydrological cycle due to climate change induced glacial melting has recently become a key source of concern given that a significant population in Nepal depend on them for daily water access for drinking and farming (Prakash, 2020). In a developing country where approximately 50% of the population is suffering from malnutrition, this lack of irrigation water will further impact the diets of millions of Nepalese people (Talukder et al., 2021). The food security for communities at higher altitudes is much more sensitive to glacial melting than ones at lower elevations. This is because their farming practices rely much more heavily on seasonal melting since precipitation decreases with altitude (Wood et al., 2020).

Emergence of Diseases and Human Health

Studies suggest that the increasing temperature and frequency of extreme rainfall events is now more conducive for the survival and reproduction of diseases, such as dengue virus, which is predicted to expend in Nepal and to higher elevation regions (Dhimal et al., 2021). Importantly, these diseases will disproportionately affect the poorest populations in the region (Talukder et al., 2021). Outbreaks of infectious diseases historically follow natural disasters that displace large populations of people and promote the transmission of diseases (Kouadio, 2012). Flooding is one such natural disaster that has the potential to displace entire communities, and is predicted to increase in frequency in the coming years. Human health is the greatest when all ecosystem services are working at full capacity because they make vital contributions to disease prevention and improved human wellbeing, however glacier depletion will affect how well these ecosystems work, and lead to increased stress, malnutrition, immune suppression, greater susceptibility to disease, and the emergence of new diseases (Talukder et al., 2021).

Climate change is impacting nearly all aspects of life for people living in Nepal. The expected trend of water insecurity in the long term future will heavily affect Nepalese communities because it is a developing country- ranking 143rd of 191 countries in the world on the Human Development Index (UNDP, 2022). It is known that the effects of water insecurity has a disproportionate impact on developing and low-income countries than on middle or high-income countries, and will also affect women, children, elderly and Indigenous peoples the most (ICPP, 2022). It is expected that women and children, who suffer more from malnutrition and access to water, will generally carry a higher health burden and have less power to adapt to the effects of climate change (Dhimal, 2021).

Nepal's adaptation measures are also vulnerable, as they have been plagued by the inequalities based on gender, caste, and class that are deeply embedded into Nepalese culture (Nightingale, 2018). The country's economy is agrarian based, and therefore is high sensitive to climate change due to its effect on natural resource availability like food and water (UNDP, 2010). 

Nepal hosts more glacial lakes than any other Himalayan country, which poses serious threats to communities living downstream in the form of GLOFs. There is a growing need for glaciologists to monitor these lakes as they form, as there is not enough data currently to provide an accurate understanding to make decisions regarding adaptation (Nightingale, 2018). High mountain communities are very vulnerable to the threat of GLOFs due to this lack of data, and loss of life could be prevented with a greater understanding of this threat. 

Current Adaptation Strategies

Adaptation planning in Nepal is focused on physical threats combined with social and economic indicators (Nightingale, 2018). Innovative climate change adaptation planning has been launched, with clarity on climate change threats given to local communities, and many promising adaptation options have been identified (Schumacher, 2020). These include water conservation measures, improved pasture management, and providing alternative income opportunities (Schumacher, 2020). Nepal engages in a multi-stakeholder process when deciding on adaptation plans, which is unusual globally but is normalized in the local culture as consensus decision is highly valued (Nightingale, 2018). 

NAPA and LAPA

The Nepal National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) and the Nepal Local Adaptation Program of Action (LAPA) are two governmental organizations that are currently leading adaptation planning in Nepal. The focus of the two groups are to first identify the most vulnerable areas to climate change and then to promote activities that can increase the adaptive capacity and resilience of vulnerable areas (Nightingale, 2018). There is a national and local group because some of the climate change threats that Nepal is facing are very unique to different groups and communities, which is something that a strictly national plan cannot fully address (Nightingale, 2018). So far, the capacity of villages to plan the management of natural resources and make decisions has been strengthened through LAPA, and these measure will make the residents of high mountain regions better able to adapt to their changing climate (Schumacher, 2020). 

About the author

Nicholas Ware studied environmental-economics at St. Lawrence University and graduated in 2024. From a small town in Massachusetts, he is passionate and experienced in outdoor recreation, specifically skiing, hiking and climbing. He has always loved spending time in nature and his fervor for climate science arose from the changes he saw first-hand throughout his experiences in the outdoors. He hoped that his research on glacial melting in Nepal would educate people on a lesser-known impact of climate change and inspire them to be more engaged in the fight to stop the effects of climate change.